At some point, there needs to be a “come to jesus” moment within the Unity Party/Progressives in which they’ll have to forgo the High Language etiquette and engage with reality. I do not think it will be this year, I think it will only happen when academia and religious institutions start shuttering. Then schools. Then eco-programs. I don’t think social causes will stick with the Unity Party. I know it sounds crazy but I think organizations like GLAAD will look around, see about 25-30% of their base voted for Trump, and sit things out on the next election to see if they can get flipped for federal funding. Or at least they’ll try.

The problem is that all this is going to happen at once because all the funding and the tariffs are happening at once. The administration will be patient because it can be patient – there’s no judicial recourse that the administration is taking seriously. The longer they wait, the weaker the resistance gets. There’s no rush.

The Broken masses will be forced to decide on a discredited Unity Party with a semi-populist platform vs the ever-chaotic Trump platform that is….impactful? We made this choice once before with Biden; I can’t tell if we can make that choice willingly again.

Unity Party will try to get international support but, with the aid cut off, they’ll be reliant on foreign money to come into the Party along with promises of trade concessions.

Elon has shown how to hack elections, and that will be template to start an arms race next election for bulk of the Donor Class (whatever that means.) Each sides wants more and better Billionaires.

Germany will split over the AfD. I don’t see how the AfD gets dislodged and I don’t see how they’ll lose next election.

Israel will over-extend and find themselves fatigued and broke. They’ll need Syrian oil and offers of land grants. This is a country that knows how to incentivize their population on pure conquest.

Currency markets will split between Chinese aligned and American aligned. This is going to be weird with southeast asia were all the high-end manufacturing is occurring.

I’m not going to predict pharmacology delays but I think if economic war = war then I would assume we will eventually have some serious issues.

Here’s a list of short-term predictions in the next few years

1.) Ukraine and Greenland are traded between America and Russia. Russia has a free hand in central Europe.

2.) The following countries declare nuclear programs and armaments: S. Korea, Japan, Israel, Turkey, Poland, Sweden, Taiwan, Norway, Belgium/Netherlands/Germany do a tie-up on a program, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, South Africa. Europe goes nuclear to protect themselves from an American/Russian pincer, but will be extracted concessions regardless because they’re surrounded.

3.) France/Turkey sign an agreement with Israel to patrol the Med.

4.) Troop drawdowns in much of Europe and re-allocation to Greenland. Britian, Iceland, and Greenland are the new “island chain” defense system similar to the Taiwanese/Japanese/Austrialian/Philippine/S. Korean island chain of allies against China.

5.) The tariffs will hit differently depending on your loyalties. Party supports will enjoy continued access to consumer goods, the rest will linger. This Christmas season will be a litmus test if Trump can make it through the term.

6.) AI will automate the bulk of professional services not gated by skilled experts by 2027. Digital, Accounting, Legal, Financial, Marketing – all these were the bellweathers for America Inc. Judges will still be around. Tele-health and tele-legal will be automated when slews of lawsuits make it necessary. Everyone is a skilled contract worker now, gig or otherwise.

7.) The tariffs will decimate at least 40% of all NGOs and Progressive Churches by 2027. This will impair the resistance movements in the 2028 election.

8.) Illinois is in play as a toss-up state in 2028. JD Pritkzer might or might not run, but regardless he’s a billionaire with a power base in opposition to the Administration. The MAGA movement in the southern part of the state has reached as far as Niles, and one sees Trump hats on the South Side of Chicago. I don’t even think Dems are aware of this yet in any meaningful sense.

9.) If Trump wins a 3rd term, he will finalize a system very similar to a Putin-regime: a kleptocratic gangster hierarchy. Is this good or bad? I don’t really know. Isn’t that horrible to say? I would kindly ask you to consider: would you rather live in a peaceful dictatorship like Singapore, which is very clean and well-run, or would you rather live in America as-is. All meaningful metrics – living standards, social standards, safety, transportation – are better there and yet there’s very little free speech or deviation from the norm. It isn’t for me.

10.) There will be supply-chain disruptions, intentional and otherwise, to leverage negotiations on tariffs. People will miss their cosmetics and tools.

11.) Disney+Hollywood+Digital media will re-align to going “back to business”. In reality, the administration is pushing out the legacy media by the end of the term. They know this, everyone knows this. There will either by a CNN or MSNBC but not both. Fox News will feel “left wing” in comparison to what will come next.

12.) Lastly, and I don’t want it to be true: this is going to be a horrible winter. I don’t think we’ll know what to do with ourselves when Alberta gas sends prices through the roof, there’s no services to repair heaters, there’s no more federal subsidizes (I think Trump will be selective to certain states), and costs are already high. It will push millions over the edge.

I don’t fully know a monk is. I think it’s a wild, wooley man with a burlap sack mumbling prayers in some desert hut, arguing with God on the spiritual plane while toiling on the physical one. I don’t fully know what one would look like in the 21st century America – but in my mind it’s Fred Rogers with a beard and maybe a bigger body. In my life, I find God’s tasks are numerous, large, and always slightly too tough.

Oh, I don’t discourage anyone from following a path of a Monk. Man, Woman, and all my wonderful Fellows who are on their journey of personal discorvery – all are welcome at the Lord’s Table.  If you feel it as a Call, it’s a Call. I do want to offer warnings from my path (what, 4 months? Is that even a step?) in that God will grant you certain Powers – self-discipline, personal accountability, and an authentic perspective on the world in which much is taken for granted.

Each Power is a configuration of your soul – if you take in self-discipline into your heart, vices turn facile and joys are appreciated because they have to be earned. It is going “cold turkey” on much of the consumeristic lifestyle we’ve enjoyed in America, and directing your mind towards purposeful work. Video games, podcasts, beer, marijuana – these have little-to-no appeal for me these days when once I needed all of them in my daily routine.  If you take in personal accountability – you will have an honest understanding of your limitations, your values, and the intrinsic worth of you soul to God. It was not a pleasant inventory for me, to be sure, but I check in periodically and I find that my limitations expand, my values are clear and non-fungible by circumstances or people, and my intrinsic value is what it always was to God, but now it is to me. If you take in authentic perspective – you can know and speak Truths and Worries honestly, which allows others to share their fears and concerns openly. But you will not be heard by most, and Truths or Worries (because what, we Monks-in-Training know everything?) aren’t nearly as dire to others as they are to us.

Sometimes I think there’s a paradox if God can truly know everything and grant us free will. I think He knows the general outline but likes the actors interpret the scenes. That’s some Monk-theology if I ever heard it.

I have a lot of experience raising two children – precisely 5 years with Jacob and almost 8 with Ellie. In the time, whenever we go to a toy shop, a local groceries, or to Target (Monks-in-training need stuff too!) I always tell the kids to say “Thank You”. I heard on an Ezra Klein podcast that there only culturally etiquette time to say “Thank You” in both directions is between the buyer and the shop-owner. It is an exchange of value that is mutually beneficial to both parties, so both parties are grateful. I didn’t know that – that podcast I listened to this year and I’ve been doing it out of “gotta teach these kiddos some manners….” instinct.

But, is that really the only time to say Thank You? I don’t know if that’s true because that would indicate that no other engagements have mutual benefits to the parties. Is it weird to be grateful for the Post Office? Or is it something I should take for granted? If I take it for granted, then I have an expectation of service and communication. If I take it as gratitude, then I’ve no expectations at all. I am unsure because both options feel extreme. I think it really comes down to other side’s expectations as well – if they’re wondering the same thing or wanting the similar. If one was moderate-inclined, one would try to hold both tracks in parallel.

Oh whatever. Just say Thank You.  No one does it enough and rarely do people thank the thankers – so make sure you spot the few left still trying to be generous in spirit and give them a heartfelt thanks. These are challenging times and it’s easy to lean-back and close up. It’s expected.

Frankly, and I’m embarrassed to say, rewarded in more Progressive circles. I worry that the generous spirit of progressives will be curtailed through self-censure and community-reinforced norms to “keep up appearances” to insulate itself from what is a rapidly deteriorating country.

I am Progressive-in-spirit, but I have to shake my head at what the community-at-Large is doing with their time and efforts. More on that later.

The great thing about being a Monk-in-Training (well, at least I am one in my head – I’m told it takes 10 years and I’m only in month 4 so…..I got some time to work on some things), is that there’s a lot of ascetic discipline in the history. There’s fasting and prayers and chants and service work. It’s got everything one needs in re-establishing personal discipline.

For me, my monk journey started at Luther Memorial Church, which is an amazing Chicago church located in the heart of GermanTown. I could go on about why this church is beauty in proportion, but that is for another post.

The challenge with being a monk is in the solitude. I find great peace in meditating/praying for hours throughout the day. It helps me harmonize my head with my mind. I frequently speak with God, who in my mind is some old mechanic who squints when he winks, like he knows someone or something. It’s annoying and bit rude, to be honest.

That said, the Guy knows some stuff and but at times I think I know God a bit better than He knows Himself. Or rather, I think I can gleam some of His designs – He’s got a pattern, you see? If you look at history, can compare things, it feels like a rhyme to a familiar toon.  I know that’s irreverent, but I have a theory that God likes free will and God likes nudges to make sure we re-learn some values we neglected and perhaps some ones we never perfected.

What I enjoy in training to be an American Lutheran monk is that it’s a bit of a start-up scene. The order is still forming. There must have been on monk, 1000 years ago, that recommended tonsure haircuts. That is probably that longest-last, most-seen joke that has been going on for centuries. I think if I can get in on the ground floor, I can one day be a Lutheran monk that recommends a secret handshake. Unfortunately, secret handshakes that are well known aren’t too secret, so I’ll have to laugh in the shadows.

There is also a direct tie-in from my Recovery experiences with AA – which was founded by a Lutheran Minister named Bill.  I don’t know Bill, but he seemed like a guy desperate to change the world for the better by helping broken men and women who were coping with addiction. I don’t know what better way to serve your neighbors than to be able to walk with them through their struggles. If I still drank, I’d toast Bill. Or shake his hand with a authentic “Thank You.” He’d probably like that better.

I hope you well, my reader. I will say a prayer tonight for you.